Dealing With Uncertainty

I was recently asked what is the best way to deal with uncertainty.  As I reflected before answering, it occurred to me that we all deal with uncertainty. All the time.

I certainly dealt with my share of it as a fighter pilot and admiral deployed overseas in hostile environs.  It is a reality of having to deal with something that is new or when conditions change we are not used to or had not anticipated.  It strikes a moment of fear due to risk of loss or failure.

At the moment of the question, my first thought was of the axiom 'don't worry about what we can't control' but I quickly discarded that because we have to deal with uncertainty--it's part of everyday living.  There is also the reality that there are those who are risk-averse and choose just not to deal with it.  You've seen it, not making a decision is in fact a decision.  But that's really just the fear of losing a fight and running from it--flight.


Examples of uncertainty we face all the time  

Do we invest in the stock market now?  
Should I quit this job I don't like...but in this economy?  
Do I chance making it to the next gas station?  
Should I open myself up to this other person who I'm interested in?  
Should I make this reinvestment in my company with the stakeholders' money?  
Should I have this surgery?  
Will my aircraft engines keep my jet climbing away from the water after a launch from the aircraft carrier (my favorite from my past career)?  

In a very simple example, dealing with uncertainty is like the first time we ventured out on the ice of a frozen pond to ice skate we hadn't been on yet.  We timidly stepped from solid footing onto the edge of the frozen water with one skate, most of our weight on the back skate until we felt a firm enough footing to transfer the weight forward.  Then we moved gingerly from the edge out listening for the cracking sound of ice about to give way.

We quickly gained confidence as we explored all the area we dared to, then gave in to enjoying the experience of skating.  Sometimes we saw others already out on the ice and had confidence from the get go.  Sometimes we had doubts because the others were less than half our size or weight.  But we cautiously took the risk in the beginning until our confidence grew.

Consciously or unconsciously we go through a mental routine of quick assessment before we launch into an endeavor with uncertainty.  Our brains quickly scan memory for what we know about this situation--what is familiar, or, the knowns.  Then, it hits what we don't know and compares them for similarities in other situations we've experienced or can recall-- the known unknowns.

What troubles us and introduces insecurity is either the fear of failure or not knowing what we don't know--the unknown unknowns.  It's a natural response and at the primal core it's what protects us from injury or pain.  But our brains can be programmed.

The process to deal with uncertainty is moving from what we know and feel comfortable with to the unknown and uncomfortable using a reach that can be recovered until we attain confidence we can reach further.  Said another way it's a matter of taking some risk, seeking feedback, building confidence, then taking more risk.

Consider the uncertainty:  NFL Players Case

Let's look at a real situation for its illustrations.  Imagine yourself as a professional football player in today's environment.

You've just finished your season and are watching those other lucky few who are now in the play-offs.  But looming ahead is the specter of a lock-out for the 2011 season because of differences between the owners of the teams and the players on those teams over a number of issues that include working conditions, long term health care, and value or profit sharing.  You want to play next season, you didn't foment these disagreements with the owners but they've been coming a long time, and the threat is being locked out of your locker room and not getting paid.  Do you side with those in your profession or those who sign your paychecks?  Forget about who's right or wrong or whether the issues have to be judged.  Just think about the huge amount of uncertainty either way.

In siding with your fellow players, you risk losing your paycheck and not doing what you love--playing football.  Further, if the negotiations between the mediators goes badly for your side, then you not only lose paychecks now but also future considerations for a lot more.  The reality is that for a professional football player, regardless of the public perception, is long hours and physical punishment for gobs of money...which does not make for a high quality of life, individually or for family.

In siding with your employers, you risk a shorter career* due to a longer season, more time away from home due to increased work demands (already more than half a year), the potential of increased long term health issues related to multiple concussions or worse, and receive less than the current share, as a percentage, of the profits generated by you.

*When I was a professional football player back in the 1970s the average career length was four years.  That was the reality due to younger, healthier players coming in all the time and four years at least qualified you for a co-paid pension after age 62.  Now the average career is less than four years due to the already lengthened seasons from 12 to 16 games and with an impending eighteen game regular season the career average is expected is to drop to just over two years.  That means on average a career is over while a person is in their early 20s with no future income until their 60s and no health coverage from this industry for these injuries in between.

This situation exposes a reality that hits every business and has come in vogue even in government--reduce overhead or inefficiencies, increase productivity, and maximize profits or service.  In other words, "do more with less."  In considering the value of these words there is nothing wrong with them but they do introduce uncertainty and while it has become a widely popular practice to do more with less it is really a penalty on workers due to poor management decisions of the past.  In our illustrative case, it was the NFL (owners) signing a bad collective bargaining agreement in 2006 and subsequently walking away from and some individual team general managers side-stepping the pay caps by signing a few rookies to outrageous guaranteed contracts.

So how do you deal with these uncertainties? 

1. First, you have to deal with the knowns and accentuate the positives.
   
   The one thing you control is yourself...so start with that.  You as a player are the reason for the profession, not the owners.  You know what your worth is at a minimum.  The game cannot go on without your talents or those like yours.  You did not create the inequities the owners are arguing for.
   
   Have confidence you have a value that is recognized by the fans.  You want and are entitled to what is fair.
   
   
2. Second, you have to consider the known unknowns and look for the opportunities.
   
   The owners have more money than the players collectively have so can they last longer without a season than you?  Do the owners consider you only a commodity instead of a valued asset?  What is your worth at the maximum?  Is risking your health worth the money?
   
   (*For many young people, the belief in invincibility is overpowering until reality sets in usually after harsh experience or with maturity.)
   
   
3. Third, there's the amorphous list of unknown unknowns so just accept something unexpected will arise eventually.
   
   Don't be surprised that something pops up because it always does.
   
   
4. Fourth, trust in what you know already and use that confidence as the foundation to take some risk, e.g. step into the unknown.
   
   -  Stay objective and don't give in to emotions.
   
   -  Have alternative positions under your belt so you aren't stepping out onto the ice with an all or nothing proposition where the winner takes it all and the loser gets nothing.
   
   -  Break down large uncertainty [big problems] into smaller more easily defined and solvable ones.  "The only way to eat an elephant is one bite at a time"--Anon.
   
   -  Find or develop ways to measure progress.  Do analysis.  Build confidence in small victories and work toward momentum for the larger uncertainties.
   
   -  Persevere.  Learn to have patience.  Hope for the best but plan for the worst by believing resolution will take time to come.

While the illustrations are about football, the lessons apply in any business or facet of life.  

The best way to deal with uncertainty is to stay positive, project confidence, don't over-project (take as much risk as you can afford), take things in small bites or shorter time frames (e.g. one day at a time), and work with or as a team.

Remember "...the strength of the Pack is the Wolf, and the strength of the Wolf is the Pack."  --Rudyard Kipling, The Law of the Jungle